Political Analysis Shows Complexity
The Nation
Bangkok
April 13, 2010
BANGKOK: — Don’t hold your breath if you wish for a speedy resolution to the political predicament following the bloodbath on Saturday.
When blood got into the eyes of the opposing sides, common sense just flew out the window. It will take at least one to two weeks for emotions to cool off before the political battle can shift from the streets toward its proper arena – a ballot box.
It is also ironic and deplorable that past political tragedies did not serve as a lesson to avoid more bloodshed but may have hardened their determination to defeat one another. Instead of respecting the sanctity of life, key figures on the opposing sides plotted to splatter blood into hands of their rivals.
In the Black May incident, Palang Dharma Party leader Chamlong Srimuang led street protests to bring about the downfall of the then prime minister Suchinda Kraprayoon. Despite his personal victory, Chamlong’s party suffered a shattering defeat in the 1992 general election and he eventually faded out of mainstream politics. He failed to overcome the stigma of leading people to their deaths.
The Pheu Thai Party, and its puppet master Thaksin Shinawatra, made elaborate preparations to avoid Chamlong’s mistake. The red shirts are being led by people who harbour no hopes of becoming a prime ministerial candidate or a main force in politics.
Thaksin recruited Chavalit Yongchaiyudh as Pheu Thai chairman. Chavalit’s open mission is to prepare for the upcoming elections. Red-shirt leader Adisorn Piengket admitted, however, Chavait was actually Thaksin’s commander to wage the “last battle” to bring about political change.
What happened on Rajdamnoen Avenue on Saturday was not a botched anti-riot operation nor a lynching mob gone berserk. It was a head-on skirmish between two well-trained armed forces – one in fatigues and another in black. The red shirts were just props in the battlefield.
Like past tragedies, parties involved might try to sweep everything under the rug by blaming “a third hand” or terrorists or unidentified elements. But a tactical retreat to attack riot forces from behind was not something the mob could do on the spur of the moment.
Riot gear, such as tear gas, shields and batons, is designed to rein in unruly crowds but not to repel live ammunition. The death of Colonel Romklao “Pao” Thuwatham of the 2nd Infantry Division, is expected to reverberate through the Army ranks.
It is a century-old tradition that graduates from Chula-chomklao Royal Military Academy come from the same feeding bowl, and hence will not kill their own kind under any circumstances. In the failed coup of 1977, General Chalard Hiransiri broke the sacred code by fatally shooting General Arun Thawathasin. Chalard was subsequently executed by a firing squad.
Chavalit and top generals backing the red shirts should know that Army commanders will not allow Romklao to die in vain. Justice must be served one way or another.
In coming days, the government and the red shirts are expected to exchange barbs on the bloodbath. Autopsy reports on the victims will be highly politicised. The Pheu Thai Party candidates cannot afford to join the election with blood on their hands. Thaksin’s best-laid plan will backfire if the main opposition party is mired by such tragic incidents.
A deal will not be struck unless the opposing sides can ascertain a strong chance to win at the polls. Then and only then will the red shirts disperse.
Don’t kid yourself if you think a snap election will usher a fresh start. The Democrats and the Pheu Thai Party are expected to fight an election war of titanic proportions. The outcome is unlikely to end the polarisation, such that the next prime minister may well come from one of the smaller parties.
Tags: Bangkok, Thailand
Zoe
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