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U.S. Consulate Info Meeting In Bangkok

Before I left Bangkok, this last Monday Bob, who was in BKK for the weekend, and I attended a meeting in the Merriott Hotel Ballroom called by the U.S. Consulate for U.S. passport holders to update us on the current crisis in Thailand. They didn’t reveal or explain much that we already didn’t know about the political aspects. (Most of it is so complicated and there is such a lack of transparency that even the ordinary Thai doesn’t understand it).

The emphasis was on safety in case we found ourselves near a flair-up. No predictions. As most others have iterated, they said the only way to resolve this is political negotiation. They (as well as about 40 other countries) have been talking to the government and the Reds urging non-violence. Lot of good that is going to do! They said any negotiation needs trust and at the moment there is zero trust on either side. They warned that the conflict could very possibly be a very protracted one. If bombs go off near you, they said to get away from windows. When bombs went off in front of the embassy in Nairobi everyone ran to the windows and were taken out by the next bomb. That was about it.

I thought they grossly under-estimated the number of protestors…said 20,000. The Friday before the meeting, on my walk from Silom to Siam Center and then to the main rally site at Ratchaprasong, it was a veritable tent city on both sides of streets all the way. Every 50 yards, huge screens were relaying the events on the main rally stage. People were lined up for food at make-shift commissaries; tents and sleeping mats, personal effects everywhere. Basically they have set up house-keeping. Walled barricades composed of tires and sharpened bamboo poles lined the streets. Reminded me of the 70,000 striking teachers in Oaxaca in 2006. The Red Guards dressed in black with red bandanas and flash-lights have set up check-points and are issuing red identification cards because, to become less identifiable by the police and army in case of an attack, they now they are wearing no colors.

In the last three or four days, three police and 8 people have been injured in a grenade blast in front of an ex-Prime Minister’s  house; an M-79 grenade hit Chiang Mai police HQ. UDD (Red) protests have flaired in four province capitals where they are blocking police from entering Bangkok…where there apparently is not enough police to disperse the protestors. But that’s not the only problem. (A gross understatement!) At the same time that Prime Minister Abhasit is saying there will still be a crackdown if no agreement is reached, the Army General is saying that no blood will be spilled by the government troops. However, now this morning, the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation is saying they have given the police permission to use live ammunition. A bomb went off in front of Bangkok Bank this morning…the bank chosen because one of the political backers has close ties with it.

Any compromise must balance between the mounting public pressure to hold elections and resistance by Abhisit’s government and its military backers to a potentially unfavorable vote. One way forward could be a delayed election timetable that gives red-shirt leaders a reason to end their rally with a promise to return if the government doesn’t deliver. Fat chance.

Simon Westlake of the Christian Science Monitor, in his report April 26 shows how complicated the conflict on the ground is:

Government officials accuse the red shirts of harboring “terrorists” armed with military firearms and explosives. Red shirt leaders have denied the charges and disowned the shadowy paramilitaries.

The red shirts’ antigovernment movement is supported from exile by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, whom Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya recently compared to Hitler and Mussolini.

Mr. Piromya berated foreign governments for not apprehending. “He is a bloody terrorist,” he told a seminar at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.

For all the hyperbole, there is growing evidence of an armed red-shirt wing, abetted by sympathizers in military headquarters who have leaked confidential plans.

Thai media identified one combatant caught on film during the April 10 clashes as a paramilitary border guard. Security sources say mercenaries with military or police backgrounds are also involved and that training camps have sprung up outside Bangkok.

A shared background

This doesn’t mean that rogue officers like Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol, an ally of Mr. Thaksin who was suspended this year from duty, are taking control of government troops, say analysts and Western diplomats. General Khattiya is a celebrity among red shirts and is known for issuing threats against his enemies.

Divided loyalties among the rank-and-file, most of whom share similar rural backgrounds as the protesters, remain a concern for commanders in the event of a crackdown.

Red shirts can also probably count on the sympathies of Thailand’s police, who have been reluctant to confront them.

“There isn’t a breakdown of the Army command structure,” says Paul Quaglia, director of PSA Asia, a security consultancy in Bangkok. “But it’s hard for them to keep a secret.”



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